TL;DR — Technology doesn't create unemployment in absolute terms. It creates unemployment for those who don't adapt. WEF 2025 data: by 2030, 170 million new jobs, 92 million lost. Net balance: +78 million. But beware — the point few people make: these technologies make the top 5-10% work more and take jobs from the rest. Those who don't learn, fall behind.
Must technological and scientific development create unemployment? No. And history proves it without appeal.
Every technological revolution has generated the exact same hysteria. Luddites smashed mechanical looms in 1811 because they "stole jobs". The tractor was supposed to wipe out farmers. The ATM was supposed to eliminate bank tellers. The internet was supposed to cancel entire sectors. And indeed it cancelled them — but created new ones nobody had foreseen.
The real numbers from WEF 2025
The data is clear. According to the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report (2025), by 2030 170 million new jobs will be created and 92 million will disappear. Net balance: +78 million. It's not a catastrophe, it's a transformation.
But beware, because here comes the point nobody tells you clearly.
The point few people articulate
Technology doesn't create unemployment in absolute terms. It creates unemployment for those who don't adapt. Subtle but huge distinction. It shifts the problem from the macroeconomic plane to the individual plane. And it's a massive problem in a country like Italy, where we desperately need qualified managers and professionals — yet we produce people who can't write in current Italian.
Here's what I see from my vantage point of someone who writes code and hires people.
Three observations from the field
1. Amplification of the top, replacement of the rest. AI companies are hiring the best of the best in writing to fix the mediocre text produced by their software. The mediocre ones? Out. There's no longer room for being just "good enough" when the first input can generate 10 variants automatically. You need someone who chooses, corrects, capitalises on top. Not someone who produces.
2. A mountain of work for practical skills. There's a mountain of work out there for people with practical skills: programmers, specialised workers, technicians. And you'd be stunned how good the salaries are. Everything we've been told about "humble jobs" and automation destroying them is largely a tall tale. A good plumber today earns more than many graduates. A CNC technician with 10 years of experience is worth 50-70k gross. A senior sysadmin with bash and kubernetes in their pocket starts at 70k.
3. The "prompt engineer" is already dead. The future job according to LinkedIn gurus — the prompt engineer — is already dead and buried. I said it months ago. Now online you find endless lists of ready-made prompts. Those who follow tech trends without understanding them are destined to stay on foot. Those who understand what's underneath — data structures, algorithms, business logic — remain marketable.
The real problem
The problem is not technology. The problem is that when you hear talk about "AI", statistically you only hear nonsense. People who actually understand it downsize every announcement. People who understand nothing tell you that in a few years robots will dominate the world and every job will be replaced.
Reality is in the middle: every new technology requires people to shift to higher-level tasks. Those who don't, fall behind. Those who do, often earn more than before.
What to do concretely
Four things you can do today, regardless of your sector:
- Move toward tasks requiring judgement, not execution. AI executes well. Choosing, discriminating, correcting — those stay human for a long time.
- Invest in verifiable practical skills. Real certifications, programming languages, real languages, technical domain competencies. Not "mindset" and not "leadership".
- Get used to unlearning. What you know today is worth half in 5 years. Not your fault. It's the game. Those who refuse to start learning again every 2-3 years, get out.
- Observe where the top 5-10% of your sector goes. Replicate real trajectories, not abstract advice.
Conclusion
Technological development doesn't "have to" create unemployment. It has to create change. And change only scares those who have stopped learning.
