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Khaby Lame and the illusion of replicable success
Marketing

Khaby Lame and the illusion of replicable success

February 12, 20261 min read

I think if you asked Lame the secret to his success, he'd say he doesn't know. And if he thinks he does, it means I've overestimated him. Because one of the defining traits of smart successful people is that they don't know why they made it.

Success is always a positive black swan. Non-replicable by its very definition. The little gurus who teach you THE MAGIC METHOD to achieve it are, first and foremost, cognitively underpowered because they don't understand this fundamental rule of exponential distributions, and secondly, charlatans who attract other charlatans.

As the wise say, Everest is littered with bodies of people who were every bit as motivated and prepared as those who reached the summit. As I always say — and I'm no sage: Reverend Bayes taught us that conditional probability is the only thing that matters.

It doesn't matter at all that Khaby Lame exists. What matters is the probability of achieving his level of success given that you've done the same things he did (let's not be pedantic — I mean the same concept of social media innovation) and with the same talent. And that probability is infinitesimally low.

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